@article{Maduwantha_2026,
  author = {Pravin Maduwantha and Thomas Wahl and Gabriele Villarini},
  title = {Atmospheric rivers drive compound flooding potential along the U.S. West Coast},
  abstract = {Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a major driver of hydrometeorological extremes along the U.S. West Coast, yet their role in generating events with high compound flood potential remains poorly understood and quantified. Here, we assess the contribution of ARs to compound flood potential by analyzing the joint occurrence of extreme rainfall (RF) and non-tidal total water levels (nTWL) across coastal catchments in the study region. Compound events are defined as co-occurring exceedances of RF and nTWL thresholds, and a copula-based framework is used to estimate joint exceedance probabilities. Results show that the number of compound events along the Washington and Oregon coasts is nearly twice as high as that of southern California. ARs are associated with 58\%{\textendash}72\% of these compound events and contribute more than 90\% to joint exceedance probabilities for both moderate (e.g. 2 year return period) and extreme (e.g. 100 year return period) events. These findings demonstrate that compound flood potential along the U.S. West Coast is largely governed by AR-driven precipitation occurring concurrently with wave-driven coastal water levels, highlighting the importance of multi-driver interactions in flood risk assessments.},
  year = {2026},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  volume = {21},
  number = {19},
  pages = {194008},
  month = {09/2026},
  publisher = {IOP Publishing},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aeabba},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aeabba},
}